A New World of Work

Photo by myHQ Workspaces on Unsplash

 

The Days of COVID

First, the days of COVID; now we are nearing the Days After Covid and the Next Normal. The term New Normal is just so, well, Pre-Covid. Hardly remember it. But what’s up ahead?

The Nature of Work

现在正在对工作的性质进行彻底的分析和重新思考, both as a result of the pandemic, 但也因为大流行之前已经发生的变化，现在由于封锁而加速了变化, social distancing and Work From Home (WFH) experiences.   Here are some observations and quotes; pieces of a jigsaw puzzle without a clear picture of what it will finally look like. 也许通过综合这些因素，我们可以尝试得出一些关于下一个常态对商业房地产影响的结论.

First, 我们都已经熟练地使用Zoom或Teams进行虚拟会议，并启用WFH安排.  This cuts down on commuting time, business and air travel, lunch meetings at restaurants, and business hotel use, all impacting real estate usage.

Work From Home

WFH的支持者认为，它使我们更有效率，因为你可以在过去的通勤时间工作, 少了办公室闲聊和咖啡休息时间的干扰，你就可以在舒适的家中工作到深夜或凌晨了.  批评人士说，你把时间从富有成效的工作中浪费到了孩子等家庭干扰上, your favorite TV shows, computer games, convenient kitchen access, etc.  你失去了正确着装的纪律，以及按时开始和完成任务.  你身边没有同事向你寻求帮助或提供意见以完成工作任务. You lose the ability to instantly coordinate, 从随意的面对面互动中获得即时反馈，并获得那些重要的“啊哈”时刻.

I think a good analogy is an athletic team.  体育运动最棒的一点就是你分享的友情和团队精神, whether winning, losing, practicing, or improving and learning what works and what doesn’t.   我知道，在商业房地产经纪行业，快速导师/指导者时刻大多是亲自到来的.  Brokers need to be able to share their daily experience, the highs and the lows, 一份非常困难和令人沮丧的工作的成功和失望.  It is just not as effective on a phone call or Zoom conference; like playing the piano with gloves on – you get the notes and the melody right, but it just doesn’t sound as good.

Employee Turn-Over Rate

一位同事评论说，新员工的流动率非常高.  刚毕业的大学毕业生被雇佣了，但他们是远程工作的，所以他们的整个办公经历都在电脑上.  与一群3 × 3的二维方块建立友情是很困难的，也不会建立起忠诚.  因此，简单地从一家公司“注销”并“登录”到另一家公司是非常容易的, job hopping, but never gaining a real insight into the company, its leadership, fellow employees, 职业道德和客户关系构成了商业世界.

There are about 60-million office workers, 那些坐着谋生的人比那些出去走动的人多.  In many regions of the U.S. only about one-third are back in the office.  In Texas it is about half or a little higher.  不幸的是，口罩和疫苗授权已成为一个政治问题.

Back to the Office, Hybrid, & Fully Remote

大约44%的公司会坚决要求你必须在办公室, like the old days, or you won’t have a job.  Others are going hybrid, 员工每周3天在办公室，每周2天在家工作.  Globally, 16% of companies are fully remote according to an Owl labs study. These days, workers have the power, not the bosses.  In order to keep good employees, 一些业务部门和公司必须尽可能地灵活.  One example is tech companies.  实际上，他们已经把工人从主要的西海岸城市转移到腹地更远的城市，比如博伊西, Idaho and Austin, Texas, for instance. 但问题是，他们的收入较低，因为他们在成本较低的城市远程工作.  It’s a reverse Cost of Living allowance.

Two-Timing Employees

Then, there was the Wall Street Journal article about the over achievers – folks working two jobs remotely at the same time!  他们会在两个变焦电话上根据需要来回切换. 或者一边打变焦电话，一边为另一家公司做提案.  一个为两家公司提供服务的供应商注意到他出现在两张发票上，他被抓了.  Ooopps!

Shrinking Workforce

Secondly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports there are presently 10.九百万个工作岗位，却只有九百万人能胜任. 仅基于这一点，我们的失业率应该是0%，而不是低于6%.  Before Covid the U.S. workforce was composed of 164.6-million people, but the workforce has shrunk. Three-million people retired from the workforce and another 1.5-million decided not to return.  有些人宁愿放弃额外的薪水，成为全职父母.  Others must care for elderly or ill family members.

High Paying Jobs Unfilled

So why isn’t everyone working now? A mismatch in job skills.  For instance, we will need 35,000 new airline pilots in the next ten years, but only about 2,000 per year come out of military aviation.  It takes years and skill to fly commercial planes.  We are not just short on waiters, clerks and cooks. Long haul truckers have had a dire shortage for some years. Construction labor, welders, coders, computer programmers, M.D.s, health care professionals, teachers – you name it.  High skill and good paying jobs go begging, 因为没有足够的大学毕业生接受这些领域的培训，高中毕业生也没有接受正确的职业培训.  Plumbers, for instance, 薪水很高，随着独立人士退休，他们的需求也很高, yet not enough are entering the field.

San Antonio CRE Market

Thirdly, millennials who are marrying, 生孩子和搬到郊区推动了对住房的需求.  许多机构房地产公司已经进入了单户住宅租赁市场, competing or out-competing with these home buyers, and driving prices even higher. Builders have been under-building to demand for some years, 因为土地成本和从城市获得发展权利的困难. Couple this with higher building material costs, due to supply chain disruptions and scarcity of new home lots, and the housing industry is hard pressed to meet demand.  The white hot market of this past spring has cooled, but the tight market will last for years to come.  小区扩张将带动更多郊区便利中心建设.  No new fashion malls are on the horizon, though.  随着办公楼使用难题在未来几年得到解决，办公楼破土动工的速度将会很慢.  Fortunately, Downtown San Antonio and Austin still look very strong, despite the pause brought on by the Days of Covid. We’re back, baby!

Income Gap

最后，一个经常被提及的担忧是不断扩大的收入差距.  我预计，在新冠疫情后的日子里和下一个正常时期，收入差距将会扩大. 那些有进取心和职业道德的人将能够因为巨大的机会而进步得更快更远, 而那些不能利用机会的人不会进步得那么快.  我们生活在一个非常自由的社会，自由带来了机会.  As the Cato Institute says, “有些人变得富有并不意味着其他人会变穷.”